理財

【創業筆記】暢銷書《原則》極簡視訊版Episode 4:深淵

以下為視訊英文原文+中文翻譯

Episode Four ‘The Abyss’

第四集《深淵》

We progress forward until we encounter setbacks.

我們不斷前進,直到遭遇挫折。

Whether or not we get out of them and continue forward or spiral downward depends on whether or not we're willing to face the failure objectively, and make the right decisions to turn the loop upward again.

我們是否能夠克服這些挫折,是繼續前行抑或是螺旋下墜,取決於我們是否願意客觀地面對失敗,並且做出正確的選擇以迴歸正軌。

Something terrible happened to me in 1982, when I bet everything on a depression that never came.

1982年,當我將一切都賭在未曾出現的經濟蕭條上時,糟糕的事情發生了。

The period between 1979 and 1982 was one of extreme turbulence for the global economy, and markets, and for me.

1972到1982年這段時間,對全球經濟、市場以及我本身而言都是極其動盪的。

And I believe that the US economy with the world economy tied to it was headed toward a catastrophe.

我認為美國經濟,以及與其捆綁的世界經濟正在走向災難。

This view was extremely controversial.

這個觀點是極有爭議的。

I wanted the great upside and very publicly took a big risk and was wrong, dead wrong.

我想要大量獲利,並且非常公開地承擔了巨大風險,結果我錯了,大錯特錯。

After a delay the stock market began a big bull market that lasted 18 years, and the US economy enjoyed the greatest growth period in its history.

短暫的延遲後,股票市場開始了持續整整18年的大牛市,並且美國經濟進入了有史以來的最快增長時期。

This experience was like a blow to my head with a baseball bat.

這段經歷就像棒球棒給我腦袋的重擊。

I had to cut my losses so that my company Bridgewater was left with one employee, me.

我只好減少虧損,讓我的公司——橋水只留下一名員工,也就是我自己。

I was so broke, I had to borrow ,000 from my dad to pay my bills.

我破產得非常徹底,以至於我不得不從父親那裡借了4000美元來支付賬單。

But even worse was having to let go the people I cared so much about.

但是更糟糕的是,我必須讓那些我特別關心在意的人離開。

I wondered whether I should give up my dream of working for myself and play it safe.

我不知道是否應該放棄為自己工作的理想,去走一條穩定的道路。

By working for someone else in a job that would require me to put on a tie and commute every day.

做一個每天打著領帶的通勤族,去為別人打工。

Though I knew that for me taking less risk would mean having a less great life.

然而我知道,承擔更少的風險意味著我的人生將不再那麼偉大。

Being so wrong and especially being so publicly wrong was painfully humbling.

犯下如此巨大的錯誤,特別是在眾目睽睽之下,是一種痛苦的恥辱。

I am still shocked and embarrassed by how arrogant I was in being totally confident in a totally incorrect view.

直到今日我依然為自己的自大感到驚訝和尷尬,竟然如此自信於一個完全錯誤的觀點。

Though I'd been right much more than I'd been wrong, I had let one bad bet erase all my good ones.

雖然我對多錯少,但我讓一個錯的賭注抹殺了我所有的好。

I thought very hard about the relationship between risk and reward, and how to manage them.

我非常努力地思考風險和收益的關係,以及如何管理它們。

But I couldn't see a path forward that would give me the rewards I wanted without unacceptable risk.

但卻找不到好的方法,能夠在獲得收益的同時規避無法承受的風險。

This kind of experience happens to everyone.

這種經歷會發生在每個人的身上。

It will happen to you.

也將發生在你身上。

You will lose something or someone you think you can't live without, or you will suffer a terrible illness or injury, or your career will fall apart before your eyes.

你會失去賴以生存的某件東西或某個人,或者會遭受可怕的疾病和傷害,又或者會親眼目睹你事業的崩塌。

You might think that your life is ruined and that there is no way to go forward.

你或許認為自己的人生已經被毀了, 前方已無路可走。

But it will pass.

但這終將過去。

I assure you that there is always a best path forward, and you probably just don't see it yet.

我向你保證,前方總會有最好的路,你可能只是還沒看到。

You just have to reflect well to find it.

你需要做的只是好好反思,去尋找那條最好的路。

You have to embrace your reality.

你必須擁抱自己眼前的現實。

In Episode 5, I’ll show you how this realization drove me to wonder how reality works and how to best deal with it.

在第五集,我將向你們展示上述想法是如何引導我去理解現實的運作方式以及最好的應對之策。

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Reference:理財生活通

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